The introduction of Russia into «five-day war» on the party of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as followed then a recognition of these states by Moscow , have generated at Russian population of Crimea a new wave of hopes of returning in structure of the Russian Federation. With the mixed feelings expects similar succession of events and a considerable part of the Crimean Tatars. The chairman of Crimean Tatar Medjelis — the main Crimean political ally of «orange» Kiev — Mustafa Dzhemilev once again reminds that «Russia is not understandable with our mind», and in its words appear an alarm and concern. Its many compatriots, on a private experience realised a vanity of hopes at least on sympathy from outside galitsk nationalists, but yet quite trusting Moscow, are necessarily ready to turn to it the looks: there is no place to look more.
«The Ukrainian» strategy of Russia only starts to be formed. It is pleasant that there is it the accelerated rates and in enough rigid form. In directed to the beginning of August the message to Victor Yushchenko president Medvedev, resulting concrete examples, directly names a present course of Kiev «Antirussian» and declares the decision to postpone arrival to Ukraine the new Russian ambassador.Apparently, the position of the president was affected also by the extremely negative reaction of expert community to Michael Zurabova’s nominee, to put it mildly, the ambassador of the Russian Federation not approaching on a post in Ukraine on all possible parametres, including main — professionalism. The decision of the president can be welcomed only, however it only the first step in a chain of the further actions forming a new course of Moscow concerning brotherly Ukraine. Special attention, certainly, it is necessary to give to Crimea tensely expecting it.
First of all, Russia should explain once and for all both to Ukraine, and the world community that the Black Sea fleet will not leave Sevastopol in 2017. Thus it is not necessary to use unusable arguments like «fleet there is no place to deduce, other bays approaching for it in Black sea are absent». Yes, from the military point of view it is fair, as that the transfer of fleet will demand huge means is true also. However Russia will not leave Sevastopol completely not therefore that is why that the city of Russian glory has no relation to a forgery of so-called Ukrainian statehood. And while there is this Russian city, here there will be a Russian fleet.
It is necessary for Moscow to declare accurately that negotiations about fleet will not be conducted, and directly to name the present reason: leaving of the Black Sea fleet means for Russia loss of Crimea, and with it — and all Ukraine. And this same that for the usual person — loss of hands or feet. Russia without Mother of cities of Russian — geopolitical cripple. For this reason, speaking: «Crimea», we mean: «All Ukraine». It is time to twenty years’ unnatural condition of chimerical «independence» to put an end. To worry about reaction of Kiev and the West standing up for by it does not follow — as well as during the Georgian-Russian conflict, they cannot oppose anything to quiet confidence of Russia.To begin with it is necessary to declare the plans at least. There is no sense to take somebody for a ride illusion of negotiations: time works against Moscow. The more close the 100-th anniversary of October revolution, the will be more rigid a pressure of Kiev and the West, and it finally can result blood.
If the Slavic peoples of Crimea on the whole joyfully apprehend removal of a question on basing of the fleet and the subsequent reunion from Russia with the Crimean Tatars making 12 % of inhabitants of peninsula, it is necessary to work separately. It is necessary to begin once! Moscow should change (more truly, to formulate) a policy concerning the Crimean Tatars, having explained them what solve the national problems they can only as a part of the Russian state. Tactics of the decision of this question should be very flexible, however anything unreal here is not present — moods in crimean tatar environment vary, and negative stereotypes give in to correction and replacement.As the example of Tatarstan or any other national republic as a part of the Russian Federation, having the rights and freedom which did not dream the Crimean Tatars in Crimea, is obvious and speaks for itself.
Getting up courage before realisation of the first and second points, Russia should strengthen sharply a humanitarian (non-governmental) component of work in Crimea. Thus projects in humanitarian sphere should extend equally on all population of peninsula without a segregation on Slavs and the Crimean Tatars. Moscow needs to search new, young faces. They are: many Crimean leaders of tomorrow have already received or receive now both political experience, and popularity — while local value.
Understanding that Russia simply does not have other exit, except sovereignty restoration over Crimea, the western analysts show for a long time a particular interest, more precisely, concern development of a situation round peninsula. In the beginning of March in the USA the report of the former ambassador in Ukraine Stephen Pajfera, prepared for Council about the international relations, making essential impact on formation of policy Gosdepa and administration of the White house has been published. The diplomat does not doubt that Russians will apply «persevering efforts in encouragement of the Crimean separatism or renewal of communications between Crimea and Russia» that can become «the main item on the agenda of debate between the USA and Russia» as consequences will be capable to eclipse results of the last year’s Russian-Georgian conflict.
Stephen Pajfer considers as the greatest risk «collisions between demonstrators-separatists and the Ukrainian internal safety force». If Russia stands up for the first in the name of the Black Sea fleet, consequences of direct armed conflict will be unpredictable. The former ambassador in Ukraine considers that Washington should advise Victor Yushchenko of conclusion fleet and the possible conflict to Russia, and also «to guarantee absolute clearness in Kiev concerning he can expect what support, if enters into confrontation with Moscow».
Among other councils of the diplomat to a management of the state — to help Kiev with the decision of the economic problems facing to Sevastopol in connection with forthcoming closing of the Russian naval base, and also «to carry out monitoring of the Russian actions in Ukraine» and «closely to consult to the Ukrainian government concerning such actions that both parties could understand is better them». At last, «the American government should encourage the expanded presence of the non-governmental organisations at Crimea and in East Ukraine».
The considerable part of these councils which are not comprising anything supernatural — a usual complex of information-prospecting measures — and with success is carried out for a long time. Even in the winter the embassy of the USA declared opening in Crimea of «a presence post», having found it difficult to explain distinctly, what for it was necessary (Russian organisations have spent protest actions in this connection «post» opening is temporarily postponed). Representatives of the American embassy in Kiev, and also officials of OSCE visit with visits of Medjelis in which course discuss a political situation on peninsula.
There are no doubts that Washington «advisers» knowingly spend a tax money for long business trips to Kiev and Simferopol. Especially if to take into consideration support from outside friendly Europeans, whether writing articles with characteristic names like «to Wait to us for new Crimean war?» (As the author, political scientist Andreas Umland considers, under certain circumstances — it is natural, provoked by «imperial» behaviour of Russia — it «can quite turn to a reality»). It is far not a unique material about a state of affairs in Crimea and the forecast of development of the situation, appeared with the beginning of year in the western mass-media. Hardly it is necessary to consider similar information activity as accident.
In Crimea simply do not believe that Moscow does not have strategy concerning peninsula. «In Russia for a long time have thought up how to return Crimea in the structure, — passed in May the delegate convinced of Simferopol the World congress of the Crimean Tatars the author of these lines. — if frankly, we understand that it belongs to Russia, and to Ukraine has got casually, at Khruschev’s will. And when time will come, Moscow takes Crimea back. How? We will see, what — the program at you is made for a long time». On assurances of absence of the similar program it has only waved away: «you simply do not know».
After the decision of the president «on Zurabov» you come to a conclusion that the interlocutor was right. The belief shown by it in omnipotence of Russia — Russia «heavenly», that what it should be, Russia which «at last will wake up», «will put things in order», «will take away Crimea back» — a phenomenon crimean collective consciousness. All peninsula, without dependence from political views and an ethnic origin, believes that «Russia so will not leave», and Crimea will be as a part of the Russian Federation. Not to deceive these expectations directly is equitable to national interests of the Russian state.