Not so long ago central Medzhlis announced carrying out on December, 5-6th, 2009 2nd sessions of V Kurultaj of the Crimean Tatar people. For today the structure of the organizational service by which head the first deputy of chairman of Medzhlis, the president of the World congress of the Crimean Tatars Refat Chubarov is appointed is already defined. At present it is known that on Kurultaj questions on support of this or that candidate on presidential election and about election of new chairman of Medzhlis will be considered. Thus already now many experts ask a question, the situation in Crimean Tatar national movement after carrying out of Kurultaj will how much cardinally change. Practically does not cause doubts that on an alignment of forces in national movement key influence will render process of election of new chairman of Medzhlis.

In the Crimean expert environment there was already a tradition before each Kurultaj to predict, what probability of that permanent leader of Medzhlis Mustafa Dzhemilev will leave the post and will transfer to its successor. Basically, today it is possible to name some the powerful reasons which predetermine M.Dzhemilev’s leaving «on pension».

First, M.Dzhemilev repeatedly underlined rather high probability of the leaving from a post of chairman of Medzhlis. Secondly, even if Medzhlis will be headed by successor Dzhemilev influence of the last on activity of bodies of national self-management all the same will remain. For example, as a variant, it can select honourable chairman of Medzhlis. Thus, M.Dzhemilev last word on acceptance of the key decisions, repenting strategy of national movement will be intensively already unessential to be engaged in administrative activity, but, remains behind it. The Crimean political scientist Alexander Formanchuk who has declared adheres to this opinion also that «influence of Dzhemilev is great, therefore whoever headed Medzhlis, he all the same should be his successor». Besides, some experts consider that now character of development of a situation in Crimean Tatar movement as though pushes M.Dzhemilev to transfer control levers in hands of the successor. The operating management of Medzhlis poorly supervises activity of oppositional structures, practically does not constrain distribution of radical currents of Islam, quantity of Medzhlis of the Crimean Tatars dissatisfied with a policy though and slowly, but increases. Several years ago these tendencies were so weak that monopolies of Medzhlis in national movement did not threaten, but now the situation is seriously debalanced, and there are all bases to assume that it will worsen. In these conditions of Mustafa Dzhemilev it would be more favourable to depart from affairs right now and to give possibility to solve collected problems to the successor. As a last resort, after all always there is a possibility to return if the successor cannot supervise a situation in national movement.

Though, on the other hand, M.Dzhemilev, most likely, is interested in that new chairman of Medzhlis could strengthen as much as possible the influence on processes in Crimean Tatar environment. After all sooner or later M.Dzhemilev should transfer definitively «reins of government» in hands of other leader. Therefore from the point of view of tactics, it is more convenient to accompany activity of the successor now, gradually transferring it in hands all control levers bodies of national self-management. It seems that it also occurs now. The first deputy of chairman of Medzhlis Refat Chubarov who is considered as the most probable successor of Dzhemilev, actively enough speaks on behalf a name of Medzhlis, making comments almost on all actual events, concerning the Crimean Tatars. Reform of bodies of national self-management also is under the control of the first deputy. From outside there is an impression that directly R.Chubarov, and M. Dzhemilev actually supervises only renders it the necessary advisory help. Even by total quantity of public statements for the last some months operating head Medzhlis considerably concedes R.Chubarov.

At the same time, it is not excluded that on forthcoming Kurultaj M.Dzhemilev as the successor can offer and a nominee of the leader of fraction «Kurultaj-Ruh» in the Supreme Rada of Crimea Remzi Iljasova. That always operated in a waterway of policy Dzhemilev, and is authoritative enough functionary of national movement. The logic in R.Iljasov’s appointment too is. We will admit, it becomes chairman of Medzhlis, and R.Chubarov continues to hold a post of the president of the World congress of the Crimean Tatars. Actually all key positions in national movement will be kept by functionaries who enter into M.Dzhemilev’s nearest environment and to whom he trusts. Though there is still a nominee of the chairman of Bakhchsarai district state administration Ilmi Umerov who differs more radical vision of activity of bodies of national self-management. But recently he was so integrated into government sphere that hardly he will consider as possible «relief».

Summarising, it is possible to tell that algorithm of actions of Mustafa Dzhemilev during carrying out 2nd sessions of V Kurultaj to predict difficult enough. After all the situation with appointment of new chairman of Medzhlis can develop and under the scenario similar with carrying out of the World congress of the Crimean Tatars. Then all expected that M.Dzhemilev because this post would become logic continuation of his career in national movement becomes the president of this structure. In practice all has turned out on the contrary. Most likely, and this time the intrigue will remain till last moment.

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