Forthcoming session of V Kurultaj of the Crimean Tatar people is deprived an agiotage of previous years. Preparation for it is conducted as if it is a question of the next session of Medzhlis on any ordinary working question. Even mass-media are not interested not so in the analysis of possible scenarios of development of a situation — all and so it is clear. Either Mustafa Dzhemilev remains on the post, or this place will be occupied with his first deputy Refat Chubarov. The project of reforming of system of national self-management of the Crimean Tatar people, offered the second deputy of Dzhemilev, Remzi Iljasov, will be accepted either entirely, or partially.
Certainly, there are enough arguments in favour of that Mustafa Dzhemilev remained as chairman of Medzhlis of the Crimean Tatar people at least still half a year. Here and the foggy future of mutual relations of Medzhlis with the future president which, apparently, should be under construction from a blank leaf. And meanwhile not predicted prospects of preparation of this body of national self-management of the Crimean Tatars to parliamentary elections in the Supreme Rada of Ukraine and the Crimean parliament.
Nevertheless, the political calmness which accompanies preparation of Kurultaj, allows to assume that voting by key questions of session will pass is uncontested. Also it is possible to assume that following the results of this sign action in a prize there will be all its main figurants.
Refat Chubarov, at last, becomes chairman of Medzhlis as today it is difficult enough to call in question indisputable authority of Mustafa Dzhemilev on the Crimean Tatar environment of political elite. Those to whom this nominee frankly is not pleasant will vote for Chubarov even. In a result, Refat Abdurahmanovich will obtain worthy compensation for the lost mandate of the People’s Deputy. Illusive prospects of reception in the future at least one place through passage in the service record of the Ukrainian political partners of Medzhlis (whoever them was) do this post for him extremely attractive.
Remzi Iljasov presented with a fait accompli of public support of Dzhemilev, most likely, will not try to challenge the given decision. Wised with political experience, he, probably, will take advantage of a current situation to get from outside of Mustafa Dzhemilev support of the project of reform of system of national self-management. Possibility on a post of first deputy of Medzhlis will head system reform for him to have more strategic value, than post reception in which frameworks of his hand, most likely, will be strongly connected.
However the greatest victory on present Kurultaj will be gained by Mustafa Dzhemilev. He will show the conclusive political talent again, after an intrigue with election of the head of the World national congress of the Crimean Tatars.
The first. In present difficult political conditions he, eventually, will manage to shift public responsibility for a political policy carried out by Medzhlis on another’s shoulders — shoulders of Refat Chubarov. It is possible to predict that Dzhemilev remains a member of Medzhlis and will be the first nominee on reception of the status of the People’s Deputy. That his influence on the decisions accepted by Medzhlis and Kurultaj of the Crimean Tatar people, will remain, it is possible not to doubt.
The second. Mustafa Dzhemilev will put a charismatic figure which has today the greatest support of the Crimean Tatars, in comparison with other national politicians at a wheel. Chubarov — the ideal speaker and the respectable card of national movement, both at the international level, and on local. Most likely, it was one of the main arguments why Mustafa-aga has stopped the choice on Chubarov, instead of on Iljasov.
The third. Mustafa-aga will keep at the head a command «Chubarov-Iljasov», despite the latent conflict between two these politicians. Together — they worthy replacement to Dzhemilev. It is possible to assert that for today Dzhemilev has not one, but two successors complementary each other. Leaving of one of them from a big-times politics would mean gradual disintegration of system which is called today as national movement of the Crimean Tatars.
On the one hand, Refat Chubarov — charismatic idiokrat who is able to «light» hearts of ordinary Crimean Tatars on meetings and in teleethers. He is able effectively, and, what to speak, effectively to conduct both public discussions, and PR-campaigns. Therefore that Chubarov supervises the majority influential ofCrimean Tatar mass-media is quite natural. Of these qualities of Remzi Iljasov cannot brag. This politician given by practical full-time job and preferring direct dialogue with people, is more perceived as «hard worker», than the leader, capable to conduct behind itself of weight.
On the other hand, Chubarov is known as the individualist, not able to work in a command, to unite and motivate the subordinates, to involve new supporters. It is a considerable problem as calls into question its ability to rally members of Medzhlis before threat of forthcoming political risks at regional and national level. Absence of a counterbalance to this line of Refat Abdurahmanovich can turn back in due course leaving from Medzhlis of valuable shots. As such counterbalance Remzi Iljasov whom many colleagues characterise as the command player, in this case, acts. This politician is able to rally people round himself and round the decision of practical problems. Among his talents — ability to resolve interpersonal conflicts. That Iljasov is able to find common language even with the political opponents is characteristic.
Besides, the big lacks of Refat Chubarov as a policy, absence of serious administrative experience and the cool relation to work «on places» are. Besides, it is considered that Refat Abdurahmanovich does not possess sufficient strength and the internal self-checking, necessary for conducting difficult negotiations and organizational work.
There is an opinion that the temperament of Chubarov plays into the hands of opponents of Medzhlis. First of all, because of inability weighted to operate in sphere of a real policy. Last vivid example — an impasse with building of the Cathedral mosque. For today anybody from representatives of republican authorities and the Simferopol city council has no desire again to sit down a negotiating table with Refat Chubarov who personally supervises this question.
The given qualities of Chubarov are compensated by the big administrative experience and national pragmatizm to Remzi Iljasova. For the last few years it became actually unique link connecting Medzhlis and a management of an autonomy. In many respects thanks to it fraction «Kurultaj-Ruh» having only eight bayonets in the Crimean parliament, despite ideological opposition to the party in power, has managed to be fixed in the majority and to receive key posts in parliament and the government of Crimea. His phrase is known: «We will co-operate with any adequate political force, because at us behind the back three hundred thousand people who will not wait when there will be favorable circumstances for the decision of their problems».
And, at last, the last. Supporting of Mustafoj Dzhemilevym of a concrete nominee — one more «fact» in mutual relations between Chubarov and Iljasov. First of all, it is the preventive measure which is not allowing them to agree about section of the power at behind his back. And already in-second, — the preventive measure directed on suppression of growth of influence by Remzi Iljasov.
The first demonstration of Iljasov of the force has occurred in 2006 when on regular session of Kurultaj he has independently generated block «Milli-Ruh» in a counterbalance to block Dzhemilev-Chubarov «Milli-Hak». By this step he has won round about half of delegates and has received, as a result, 16 of 33 members of Medzhlis.
Last fact which speaks about proceeding strengthening of Iljasov — the conflict between political «heavyweight» Server Saliev and Refat Chubarov in which he has supported the last. Being guided by the decision of Medzhlis on removal from a post of head of Reskomitet of affairs of international relations, Remzi Iljasov has opposed the member of the command who have ignored the given decision. The conflict which has followed it has come to the end unexpected for Iljasov much by a victory and reconstruction instead of representatives of the party, loyal to Saliev, new supporters. Advancement by it on the released post of head Reskomnats of the «» candidate — Edem Dudakov became the definitive point which has shown Iljasov’s weight in Medzhlis.
Thus, a little that will change results of Kurultaj in real arrangement of political forces within the limits of national movement of the Crimean Tatars. Transformation will be undergone only by a formality of mutual relations between three key political persons: Dzhemilev-Chubarov-Iljasov.
And here from what it is necessary to expect basic changes, so it from reform of system of national self-management of the Crimean Tatar people. She assumes creation of strong representative and executive institutes of the power limiting influence each other, and provides considerable decrease in influence in the national policy of the personal factor of leaders.
Andrey Stupnin, the political scientist
«Peninsula» №49 (353), 4 — on December, 10th 2009