The expiring year became year of political changes and social shocks for simple Ukrainians. It comes to an end with concentration of the power, arrests of oppositionists and preparation for explosive social reforms. In foreign policy Yanukovych goes Yushchenko’s course, but reminds Kuchma more and more.
For ten months of board of president Victor Yanukovych it was possible to change the Constitution, having transformed Ukraine, as a matter of fact, into presidential republic. And, passing traditional legislative procedures. The command of the new guarantor names all it is a beautiful word «stabilization». Political scientists — authoritarianism fraught with excitements.
Chaos of times of Yushchenko and Timoshenko, permanent war between power branches, really, behind. But the main intrigue for Ukraine-2011: a choice between authoritarianism-lajt and a police state. Application of force against businessmen on the Maidan, unprecedented on mass character for the post-Soviet territory arrests of ministers of Timoshenko, criminal cases against oppositionists — all it «the first calls».
To overestimate Yanukovych’s authoritative «bents», of course, it is not necessary. Ukraine not Belarus, deputies of oppositional fractions unanimously speak. The president already and so has twirled all possible nuts. So-called administrative reformation has concentrated all actives in hands of three cores, having left behind a board of all of the others.
To gain as much as possible favourable political effect, to begin with it is necessary to twirl nuts up to the end, having released then on a half-turn. So was with the Tax code which accepted in the conditions of mass protests. At first Azarov’s government has excited taxes, having threatened utter annihilation small and average business, and has then made concessions, having considered only some wishes of businessmen and having dispersed the dissatisfied.
It seems that the new power so will operate in all. For 2011 at it ambitious plans: after tax and administrative reforms to spend so rigid pension, to accept the Housing code which calls into question a private property institution on habitation. The country new rise in prices for gas, growth of pension age for women for five years and for two years for men, mass cutting-down of officials of the lowest link, the maximum reduction of privileges and social payments waits.
Meanwhile, Ukraine all sits down on a needle of credits of IMF more densely, fulfilling all its explosive requirements. In 2011 under credits it will be necessary to give an order $5 billion By estimations of economists, they at the country aren’t present. Money from privatization Odessa Port factory and «Ukrtelecom» won’t cover expenses. To reduce the price for the Russian gas to Ukraine it was not possible. In 2011 Kiev should pay even more, considering the formula of the price for gas in a binding to oil cost, and that already rises in price.
On justice, the power could assign a burden part on payments of debts to the oligarchs, which steels at first the crisis reason, and then — having doubled a condition during interflows and absorption. As taxes they actually do not pay: the largest companies of Ukraine are registered in an offshore. But, hoisting taxes everything, the power doesn’t hasten to do the same with large business: promised closing of a tax hole in Cyprus is postponed for 5 years.
All it involves new protest actions. It is not necessary to expect power change: the spokesman of interests of the poor population and the plundered middle class among the Ukrainian political forces isn’t present, and predators abroad all event here while quite arranges. But, according to recent research, 43 % of respondents mark revolutionary moods. And their power is afraid.« There is such concept «a strength side», — Vadim Kolesnichenko frankly admitted interview to the newspaper «Today» responsible for work with the Prorussian electorate in Party of Regions. — Now go tax, pension and other reforms if during this period we WILL stand it is possible to pass and to a language question ».What about languages. It is necessary to expect even less that the power will fulfill promises on real integration with Russia and to granting to Russian of the special status. Local elections have ended, and parliamentary which under the constitution should take place in March, 2011, will obviously transfer for the autumn 2012. And time isn’t present elections, means, there is no also a necessity to make advances. Presidential close cooperation with the Russian capital, after all they competitors on all basic branches isn’t favourable. The joint venture in power, shipbuilding, aviation industry — only on a paper.
In the geopolitical plan Yanukovych, as a matter of fact, continues to politician Yushchenko. The NATO have refused only because there all the same won’t accept, but the course on ephemeral eurointegration repeats as a spell. A visa-free regime from EU — a chimera. There are plans on signing of the Agreement on political association and a zone of free trade with the European Union in 2011. But, according to poll of 45 Ukrainian political scientists, Russia will actively block this process. To hope for joining of Ukraine to the Customs union it is not necessary. And the foreign policy will be reduced to that bulky despot Yanukovych will waltz between the West and Moscow. A unique difference with Kuchma: that though didn’t stumble in dance about proper names.
Anna STESHENKO
www.rosbalt.ru