On a Crimean Tatar political sky of constellation of political forces start to flicker more brightly, anticipating the next elections, this time in local councils. Under decision of SR of Ukraine the local authorities will be selected on October, 31st current year.

All intrigue consists that, judging by the law which has been accepted in parliament of Ukraine, deputies from the majority new game rules have decided to establish. Namely: if before general for our country there was a proportional system of election of servants of the people now the party in power initiated introduction there is no time the mixed election system occurring in our country, that is 50 on 50 proportionally majority. For better effect cancel blocks between political forces. Behind all it scale ambitions of Party of Regions (PR) which for an entire happiness does not suffice today only with a crash are seen to win future elections. What process dramatic art in allukrainian scale for us it will be, of course, curious, but I think, for the Crimean Tatars powerful practical interest represents, naturally, a result of filling official offices and sessional halls in the Crimean scale, besides in a cut of Crimaean Tatar aspect. We without effort can define today the four of leaders who act now as the basic players on Crimean Tatar electoral field. Under drumbeat we will announce all list, it is: Milli Medzhlis (MM), Milli Firka (MF), Coordination council of political forces of the Crimean Tatar people and BYT. But it is impossible to dismiss Party of Regions which can affect a situation not indirectly, and directly. For example, can switch on in the list of one-two checked up Crimean Tatars. For today each of the above-stated political forces has declared the intention to be overcome for the right to defend interests of the Crimean Tatars in the power. Therefore all from them on low start before solving running which will define logic of succession of events the next 5 years.

Here is how it was earlier? Though alternatively to Medzhlis also acted that one others, but nevertheless all laurels got to a sheaf Dzhemilev-Chubarov. It also gave the chance to practise oprichnik statements on various public actions, giving out objectionable to enemies of the people, bad people, selling etc. Let’s track evolution of rhetoric of chairman of Medzhlis during performance from a memorial service tribune on May, 18th 2007, 2009 and, at last, 2010 (in 2008 M.Dzhemilev this day was in overseas business trip). So, speech of chairman of Medzhlis of the sample of 2007:« As a whole, it is necessary to recognise that, unfortunately, last years the number of people, for whom personal material and career interests much more above national and which for the sake of personal even are ready on the actions, caused a damage to interests of all people has increased. The number who conducts an animal way of life has increased and are absolutely indifferent to destiny of the people. There were the organised groups, which primary activity is reduced to finding or to an inventing of errors or omissions of our national self-government institutions then to bear malice to Kurultaj and Medzhlis on pages of the Russian-speaking press. And rage and hatred at these people to the elite our compatriots to bodies at times even much more, than at the most terry chauvinists ». 2009:« Unless not too much became at us such narrow-minded and immoderately ambitious «patriots» at whom the basic «patriotic» activity is reduced, on pleasure to opponents of restoration of the rights of our people, to attempts to discredit and blacken a representative body of the people? However, not too it is a lot of these people and groupings. Even if all of them will unite, and they never will unite, because except themselves they love nobody and only itself consider as most «correct» but even if will unite, they cannot make at all a competition to our system of bodies of national self-management, and anything acceptable for the compatriots will not make. However, as it is known, for destructive activity many mind and energy »is not required. And in 2010 Mustafa-aha showed all a miracle, having declared:« our people, as well as many other people, have one good rule — during the responsible moments to forget about mutual insults and as much as possible to unite for protection of national interests… At sufficient organisation and activity of our compatriots we can achieve increase in representation of our compatriots in authorities at least in 1,5 times. There is a truism which says that because of contentions great powers perish, but thanks to the consent also the small people »repeatedly amplify.

All these years leaders of Medzhlis of oppositionists even for serious people did not consider supposedly in this party of 5 persons, in another 10, but as a result it appeared, what is it at their first sight they were not a mighty small group, but nevertheless their forces have sufficed rather sensitively to impair a little weather to national leaders, after all instead of that in last parliamentary elections in Crimea to take 13-14 deputy places in peninsulas SR (considering percent of the Crimean Tatars on peninsula), proteges of MM have hammered behind themselves only 7. It means that Medzhlis promptly loses political weight and trust of voters. A situation understand and in the MM, even, despite external bravado, from here and honey on lips of Mustafa Dzhemilev, and appeals to forget all not smart pages in mutual relations. We have addressed for the comment concerning a developing situation, and also the future plans for elections to the first deputy of chairman Milli Medzhlisa Refat Chubarov, but, unfortunately, Refat-aha has not counted for important to give 5 minutes of time for dialogue with the national newspaper.However the head of Secretary of Medzhlis Zair Smedljaev has kindly agreed to talk to us. Zair-aha has noticed that Medzhlis is always ready to cooperation with others Crimean Tatar forces. But an another matter that representatives of Medzhlis should not run behind all. The politician has underlined: who really wishes to work, let comes, after all doors of Medzhlis are always open. In success even incorporated forces oppositional to Medzhlis Zair Smeljaev does not believe and is convinced that their participation in elections will not deform results. On a question, under aegis of what political force Medzhlis, most likely, will go on autumn elections to local councils, the chairman of Secretary has assumed, that it should be National Ruh.

In spite of the fact that representatives of opposition till today have not sung any high note, probability of that they will win a prize, and the others will be killed in fight, every day all above and above. Thereupon the considerable potential is comprised by party (organisation) «Milli Firka». After all this force successfully creates the cells across all Crimea, gets stronger morally and physically, typing political weight and trust of people.

On a game board of Crimean Tatar politics good courses it is quite capable to show and Coordination council of political forces of the Crimean Tatar people which stands up for the Crimean organisation of allukrainian party «Third force». The chairman of presidium of Council Hubedin Kubedinov has told us that Council passes a check in stage in Ministry of Justice as remedial political movement with the allukrainian status. «Our purpose — to create the international human rights organisation — that at the international level to protect interests of the Crimean Tatars, to solve questions with attraction of corresponding instances abroad», — has underlined Hubedin-bei. Besides, the chairman of presidium has noticed that Coordination council on elections it will be unequivocal to co-operate with Party of Regions.

The certain percent of Crimean Tatar voices can take away for old time’s sake BYT (in Crimea there will be party «Batkivshina«). The People’s Deputy of Ukraine Sergey Velizhansky has not dared to assume, what lath their political force takes on the future elections, but has underlined that adherents BYT in Crimea did not become, and even on the contrary less, their supporters only has increased. «We are consecutive in the actions. We for that we had a democratic society, for that the economy developed, social sphere that the people living in Crimea were not opposed each other. Our political force will continue to solve numerous problems of the come back Crimean Tatars. It also is our belief which do not vary depending on that, in power we or not. I am assured, they in many respects coincide with expectations of the Crimean Tatar people», — Sergey Konstantinovich has underlined.

At participation above the designated political forces we can assume some strategy of succession of events. But in the beginning we will note, the Crimean Tatars as the nation again with shine show absence of sufficient level political grounding. It is because we for 20 years could not ripen to the organisation uniform allukrainian political party. It is when Hungarians, for example (whose number is less than number of the Crimean Tatars, and they also are compactly collected in one region), have managed to register already two. Actually broken election system on the majority and proportional complicates prospect of passage of the Crimean Tatars in those or other councils. Important also how will divide majority districts and what will be an appearance of voters of the Crimean Tatars.

So, there are three promised strategies.

The first. To unite Milli Medzhlis, to Milli Firka and Coordination council and in general to all who feels in itself forces, to create the general list and to put a maximum of efforts, to push in SR Crimea as much as possible deputies-Crimean of Tatars. Under forecasts, in that case it is possible to receive about 15 mandates. It is interesting that all key players find this variant the most effective and have expressed the readiness to sit down for a negotiating table. Besides in MM there are forces of enough high office level (he is Aziz Abdullaev, Remzi Iljasov, Ibraim Mamutov). They are people who were included into system Kurultaj-Medzhlis to create to itself a certain political roof for business and political career. When they will feel that such roof of Medzhlis not in a condition to provide, it is quite probable, someone from them will go on realisation of this strategy.

The second. To unite all Crimean Tatar oppositional to Medzhlis forces, to create the uniform list and in fight. Along with that MF is ready to co-operate on the conditions for the sake of elections even with MM, chairman MF has doubted that Medzhlis is ready to such negotiations and has underlined that МF has no problems for realisation of idea of the uniform national list, and problems are at potential partners. In case of association only opposition forces the probability of passage to the Crimean parliament too is, but in that case it will be a question of 5-6 deputies as a whole and even if on boards, does not leave any more. The coordination council in person od Hubedin Kubedinov has expressed sincere desire, in case of an impasse with the national list, to unite with the forces standing out of Medzhlis. «We would make more for the people if could unite the efforts with Milli Firka and other political organisations» — has told us Hubedin-bei.

The third, the most sad, but rather possible: all Crimean Tatar forces will go isolated streams. МF considers this variant as unacceptable, but at the same time it is underlined that their political force will fight for each voice, especially they feel shoulders of partners. Hubedin Kubedinov has noted: «If there is no compromise, we will participate in elections independently. Because there are people who hope for us which trust us which, eventually, on presidential election have supported our candidate Victor Yanukovych. Even if the percent was not big — 20 %, and somewhere 30 % of the Crimean Tatars. This situation forces us to participate in elections. We will make it for people who have already generated political views, have the vision of a situation».

The variant when, remembering former times, can join in campaign and Edip Gafarov is not excluded.

Political conditions are heated with approach of hot weather. There are no doubts that succession of events will get the most unexpected turns. We had possibility to be convinced when presence at the power only Medzhlis nomenclatures plays only destructive role. Autumn elections in local councils not far off, and at us are the big hope over heads of the Crimean Tatars stagnation will be replaced by political variety therefore we will feel results of a maximum of initiatives from each national servant.

Elvina SEITOVA

«Voice of Crimea»