The speaker of parliament of Autonomous republic Crimea Vladimir Konstantinov has declared probability of dismissal from responsible posts in the government of an autonomy of representatives of parliamentary fraction «Kurultaj-Ruh» in connection with refusal of the last to promote Party of Regions and the president of Ukraine Victor Yanukovych in performance of their pre-election pledges under the status of Russian and a reconstruction of good-neighbourhood mutual relations with Russia.
Probably, a profound knowledge of a contemporary history of Crimea, especially a role and character of Crimean Tatar movements, have inspired to mister Konstantinov and its party fellows sincere belief in readiness of Medzhlis to defend the status of Russian and to strengthen mutual relations with Russia.
Approximately during the same time, the chief of mister Konstantinov, the president of Ukraine Victor Yanukovych, being guided, apparently, by idea of coalition spirit of regionals and Medzhlis, looked, as under windows of residence of the head of the state his protection (so mass-media testify) kicks dispersed picket of the Crimean Tatars, tightened was an old song about the victims of a mode deprived of the earth.
In reply to similar display of coalition love from outside regionals, by then already supported resignation of the head of the Kirov district state administration of Autonomous republic Crimea Kadyr Osmanov, Tatars in the name of the leader of Medzhlis Mustafa Dzhemilev have taken offence, have promised to call Kurultaj and have threatened with «bad consequences» for the power. Earlier, in May, mister Dzhemilev has called is state conceiving public of Ukraine in every way to struggle against stay in Crimea of the Black Sea fleet of the Russian Federation. There are all bases to assume that denouncement of the Kharkov agreements is included into a package promised by Medzhlis «bad consequences».
There are at least three reasons which have induced regionals on the conflict with Medzhlis.
1. The first, instinctive: arrangement of own personnel.
2. The second, tactical: attempt to stop falling of level of trust of the population of Crimea to Victor Yanukovych who, according to last sociological data, makes a quarter from typed during elections of 2010 of voices. The desire of regionals to change the sharpest social and economic and household summons the conflict to the Crimean Tatars which in any way do not wish to defend Russian status together with Party of Regions Here is available. From the point of view of electoral therapy of a presidential rating — an invention more than doubtful for to level regional the promised status Russian as second state language have reduced regionals. Without any help.
3. The third reason, strategic and the most deep. Absence of any internal reserves and the fiscal loyalty addressed to some oligarchs give up for the government of Ukraine unique hope of conditions normalisation in the country and power preservation, namely — attraction of resources from the outside. Potentially safe source one — Russia. Precedent of reception of the help is already created also the Ukrainian party it understands as follows: every year fleet stay is a separate conversation about material aid volumes. Sources of this confidence that the Kharkov agreements have system value for Russia, and president Medvedev as the initiator has assigned to itself a huge private responsibility.
The ex-president of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, has formulated this measure of responsibility: «to Leave Sevastopol is there would be such moral blow for Russian psychology that if the Russian president has made the decision (to take away fleet), on following put it would cease to be the president». Mister Stroub Telbot, the ex-assistant to the state secretary in Bill Clinton government, testifies in the memoirs «Bill and Boris» to tactics of a Russian side existing in the early nineties to achieve allocation of the western material aid. The Russian delegations of any level including the highest, insisted that in case of non receipt of this help the population of Russia blow off young democracy (true friends of the West) and to all world, including the USA, it is necessary to deal with communists and even with whom is worse.
As here again, if not Yanukovych and Party of Regions who will absorb risks of preservation of the Kharkov agreements? To oppose the Crimean Tatars and the nationalists who have declared aspiration to denounce these agreements. Not clearly one: for what these risks to create? Really subsequently to claim for the recipe described by the American diplomat?
Tatyana MAKARENKO, the Crimean academy of the humanities.
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