The basic questions facing Ukraine in 2011
Introduction

The analysis of five important questions facing Ukraine at the moment of the beginning of the second year of stay in a post of administration of Yanukovych is more low presented:

1) the economic reform Agenda in Ukraine and potential for agriculture transformation.

2) Ukraine and a problem of Islamic activism in Crimea.

3) Protection of national interests of Ukraine in Moldova and Dnestr region.

4) Achievement of «the national consent» concerning use of Russian and an Ukrainian of languages in Ukraine.

5) Interest of Ukraine in evasion from «confusing» military men of blocks.

There is also a number of other questions facing Ukraine which, probably, surpass the resulted questions in respect of the direct importance. Relations concern their number with Russia, a condition of the Ukrainian democracy, the status of efforts on eradication or, at least, cardinal cutting-down of corruption, the politician of transit of energy carriers through Ukraine (and on a bottom of Black sea), and also demographic crisis in Ukraine, besides other questions.
I. The Ukrainian economy: potential for agriculture transformation
1. The historical inquiry

In 2010 Ukraine has achieved positive growth (4,5 %) to which awful cutting-down on 15 % in 2009 preceded. It became possible thanks to revival in export sectors (metal products and grain), crisis in which in 2008-2009 was at the bottom of gross national product cutting-down in 2009.

Though (moderate) economic lifting in Ukraine is good news, it still far lags behind pre-crisis rates of increase of gross national product and speaks, mainly, effects of statistical base of comparison. The country will remain vulnerable to external economic shocks until the government won’t carry out the reforms directed on nalogovo-budgetary stabilization, a diversification of economy and attraction of additional direct foreign investments.

In 2010 the government has started to carry out a number of scale reforms. Besides, the International currency fund which has renewed granting of loans in July of that year, has demanded carrying out of own program of reforms. The reforms undertaken for today, underline a role of nalogovo-budgetary stabilization as first step on a way to economic transformations to the country.

Cooperation between Ukraine and IMF has faced certain obstacles in February, 2011 when the parties couldn’t reach the arrangement on delivery of third «tranche» during visiting of Kiev by IMF delegation in frameworks of «survey mission».

The IMF wishes to see progress on a way to significant pension reform by March of this year and to define fiscal measures for indemnification of slower (in comparison with expectations) introductions by the government of higher tariffs for gas consumption in home market.

In view of importance of credits of IMF from the point of view of ability of the government to obtain loans in the international markets of the capital under comprehensible rates, and also in view of absence of the essential problems connected with elections, it is possible to think that the government will provide satisfaction of requirements of IMF for delivery of third «tranche».

Nevertheless, Kiev sharply realizes the potential political costs connected with satisfaction of the requirement of IMF about that the budgeted deficit didn’t exceed 3,5 % from gross national product. Time will show, how much the government will show desire to carry out rigid reforms when the political price of these actions will start to grow.
2. The forecast

The IMF and the World bank predict continuation of moderate lifting of the Ukrainian economy in 2011 (3,5-4 %) and 2012 (5 %) at inflation at level of 12 %. It is possible to wait for dynamical growth in sector of metallurgy in process of activization of building projects within the limits of preparation for the European championship on football of 2012 Ukraine and Poland, and also in process of position restoration in the foreign export markets will be which owners.

However more serious question for Ukraine there is an achievement of success in transfer of economy into absolutely new basis for the purpose of elimination or, at least, vulnerability drop before external shocks. The reforms carried out for today pursued vital, but the limited purpose of nalogovo-budgetary stabilization.

After achievement of this purpose the government should concentrate efforts to improvement of conditions for enterprise activity and increase of trust of investors. It will mean performance against corruption that will cause introductions into struggle against the powerful settled groups of persons. Time will show, whether will suffice at the firmness government to follow a direction of reforms.
3. Point of view AIU

Fredrik Ericson, the director of the European center of the international political economy located in Bruxelles, names Victor Yanukovych’s economic reforms «converting» and declares that it «can soon become leaders economy in Europe». Let us wait and see. The government has been compelled to refuse new edition of the Tax code in December of last year in the face of large-scale demonstrations.

Moreover, during presidential campaign of 2010 Yanukovych adhered to a populist line, opposing pension reform and increase of tariffs for fuel of household appointment that doesn’t allow to consider Yanukovych as the convinced supporter of liberalization of economy. Though he has chosen a pseudo-liberal way as the president, it is possible to imagine easily as its administration will refuse reforms in the event that their political price will appear too high.

Anyway, as it has been noted above, the reforms which have been already carried out at present, are directed, mainly, on achievement of nalogovo-budgetary stability. They won’t appear «converting» (using expression of Mr. Ericson) in itself. If Kiev achieves transformations (namely he should aspire to it), that, in our opinion, it is necessary to search for them in a question on reform in the field of farmlands.

In the world the sharp rise in prices for agricultural production is observed that, under forecasts of many experts, becomes a long-term tendency owing to growth of population, cutting-down of the area of the processed earths all over the world and changes of food requirements of middle class formed in Asia, besides other factors. Meanwhile, to Ukraine 25 % of humus in the world (thus its considerable part is used insufficiently) that allows to it potential possibility to become Saudi Arabia with reference to agriculture production are necessary.

Mr. James Morton, the founder and director CIM Investment in London, has declared recently that if Ukraine passes correct laws on use of farmlands and the property right to them «gross national product of Ukraine per capita will quickly double».

Here it would be valid «transformation». A key to achievement of this result by Ukraine is adoption of law about property reform on the agricultural purpose earths. In an ideal, position about long-term rent of farmlands should be provided so that foreign and national investors had stimulus to fulfillment of capital investments in building grain elevators, new irrigational systems etc. Without considerable reform in this area Ukraine will miss the chance. Reform concerning farmlands should be on the first place in the list of priorities of the government.
II. Islamic activism in Crimea
1. The historical inquiry

The history of Crimea and, in particular, the Crimean Tatars, is long and difficult, allowing to deform the validity to please to the political reasons. In the West mass deportation of the Crimean Tatars in days of the Soviet power on charge in cooperation with the German aggressors is considered not only an example of groundless communistic reprisals, but also a part of incessant prosecution of «indigenous population of Crimea» since joining of this region to the Russian empire in 1783.

This unilateral propaganda sight doesn’t consider that fact that orthodox Slavs made the most part of indigenous population of Crimea even at the time of the Crimean khanate when they were non-Muslim citizens of Muslim owners. At the time of the Crimean khanate the peninsula was the large center of a slave-trade in which «the steppe crop» — a considerable quantity of Ukrainians, Russian, Poles and other Christians grasped by the Tatar groups, making attacks on neighbors, and taken out by the ships from Feodosiya (Кefe) and other Crimean ports in other cities of Osman empire.

As exclusively Tatar-Muslim administrative-territorial formation, such, for example, as the Crimean National Republic 1917-18, it is necessary to consider modern descriptions of Crimea as attempt to restore the previous domination Islamic umma («communities» or «nations») over Christian kaffirs («incorrect»).

Considering support of the western centers of the influence, rendered other movements having for an object «discharging» in the orthodox countries, for example, to the Bosnian Moslems, Albanians (Kosovo), Sandzhaku in Serbia and to Chechens to Russia, such descriptions to the Ukrainian authorities should consider with suspicion. In these cases that began as the peace campaign supported by the West directed ostensibly on maintenance of the secular democratic rights of a Muslim community, develops in due course into the furious jihad, having the purpose an establishment of Muslim domination.

In particular, Medzhlis claims (Medzhlis of the Crimean Tatar people) — assemblies of the Crimean Tatars — on representation of the right of the Crimean Tatars on «the national-state self-determination in the national territory» are necessary for understanding the Medzhlis as state creation in the state, that is as the purpose incompatible with legitimate authority of Ukraine and Autonomous republic Crimea.
2. The forecast

Now activism of the Crimean Tatars doesn’t represent serious threat to national unity and internal stability of Ukraine. However, if to show passivity and to leave things to chance, the situation in Crimea and in Ukraine as a whole, possibly, will start to develop by the way of Islamic activism in other regions.

Under cover of «human rights» and «democracies», and with support from the western and Muslim countries, in particular Turkey, within several years Ukraine and Autonomous republic Crimea, possibly, will face requirements to give to the Crimean Tatars «the right to self-determination» and to recognize Medzhlis as «the sovereign» structure, accompanied threats of the announcement of jihad in case of default of these requirements.

Also it is possible to expect that the specified requirements will coincide on time with increase of Islamic consciousness in a Crimean Tatar community, including the right to enter laws of Sheriyat for its members. For example, the US State department has already characterized as infringement of human rights the policy of the government of Ukraine concerning representation for reception of the passport of photos in hats and any other headdresses. This problem has arisen, when the Crimean Tatar began to insist on being made on a photo on the passport in hidzhab.

Wider consequences of increase of Islamic consciousness are reflected in efforts of Hizb-ut-Tahrir, the international Islamic party, on strengthening of support among the Ukrainian Moslems of idea of restoration — presumably, by means of peace means — world Islamic khalifat (Khilafah) which part was the Crimean khanate.

It has been declared by the Ukrainian branch Hizb-ut-Tahrira in 2009: «the Purpose of Hizb-ut-Tahrira is restoration of an Islamic way of life by creation of the Islamic state Halifat in which Islam laws [i.e. Sheriyat] will operate and the invitation (to accept Islam)»] for all mankind «will be transferred in the world Islamic da’wah [i.e.,». It is possible to expect strengthening of similar propaganda if not to accept measures on its restraint.
3. Point of view AIU

There should be no obstacles to realization of the civil and legal rights of the Crimean Tatars as citizens of Ukraine equal in rights and Autonomous republic Crimea, including the native language use (at schools and in mass media), carrying of traditional suits (in informal conditions), the right to religious practice departure (but not on propaganda for Sheriyat introduction), and also property returning according to the law.

However Ukraine, Autonomous republic Crimea shouldn’t recognize this group as any sort sovereign community with the right to self-determination. To corresponding national and republican bodies it is necessary carefully and to supervise constantly activity and financial resources of Medzhlis and other Islamic organizations, and their management, especially their communications with the western governments and the non-governmental organizations, with the governments of the Muslim countries, and also with the international Islamic groups, such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir. Activity which will be recognized by breaking the current legislation, it is necessary to stop and, if necessary, to dismiss the organizations guilty of infringement.
III. Moldova and Dnestr region
1. The historical inquiry

As already described AIU in January, 2011, Kiev has missed possibility to affect formation of the new government in Moldova after elections in November, 2010 and to counteract active efforts of Poland, Sweden and Germany on encouragement of creation of the «Proeuropean» coalition.

Result is hardly functioning coalition, incapable to elect the president that promises prolongation of the period of political uncertainty which lasts two years. That is even worse, inactivity of Kiev provides to extremist nationalist groups in Moldova more ample opportunities for advancement of their program of the Proromanian irredentism which threatens interests and territorial integrity of Ukraine. This program has got new support from Washington in the form of the February report of republican fraction of the Senate in which the appeal to Dnestr region contains to obey to the power of Kishinev.

2. The forecast

If (and until then while) Kiev doesn’t accept more initiative position concerning succession of events on southwest border of the country, instability and potential threat of disorders will raise only.
3. Point of view AIU

As it is underlined in one of analytical materials AIU, the basic interests of Ukraine on southwest border are maintenance termless status quo to Dnestr region, encouragement of Moldova from the West and Russia, and also more effective countersteering of the Romanian nationalist propaganda in Kishinev, assuming, as a matter of fact, concerning Ukraine the program of actions on reunion to an ethnographic and linguistic sign.

Kiev should achieve the termination of foreign intervention in internal policy of Moldova which has obviously for an object achievement of the end result which is equitable to interests of Romania and, hence, adverse for Ukraine.

Kiev should undertake active steps on maintenance of that Washington, Bucharest and Bruxelles didn’t feed any illusions that the question on the status of Dnestr region can be solved without the consent of Ukraine, and also Russia. Besides, Kiev should show the initiative in questions of an establishment of the prices for gas, sales of grain and transport arrangements between Ukraine and Moldova, and also between Ukraine and Dnestr region. Ukraine should consider also the own diplomatic initiative about settlement of the Dnestr question by negotiations in which basis rendering of pressure upon Tiraspol on purpose wouldn’t lie to force it to obey to Kishinev.
IV. Russian Status in Ukraine
1. The historical inquiry

In 2010, as well as in all its previous presidential election campaigns, Victor Yanukovych promised to make Russian the second official language along with an Ukrainian. Last year the Supreme Rada has made the decision under the legislation, resolving to use documents in Russian or other «regional» languages if number speaking in such language in corresponding region exceeds 10 %. The law also provides that the share a tele- and broadcastings in Russian shouldn’t be less than 20 % and that pupils and advertisers should have choice possibility between Russian and an Ukrainian languages.

As a whole, the new law (which input in action passes slowly and with failures) is a step forward for the people living in areas where Russian is the most widespread language of oral speech, and in many cases the unique standard language. The law corresponds to item 10 of the Constitution which says: «In Ukraine free development, use and protection of Russian, other languages of national minorities of Ukraine is guaranteed». Though the new law has been supported, it has caused demonstrations from those who has considered as its first step to cancellation of the status of the Ukrainian language as a unique official state language and threat to the survival of language, and it obviously doesn’t hold out to a pre-election pledge of president Yanukovych.

2. The forecast

Being step to a right direction in respect of the democratic accountability in Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine, the law from 2010 is problematic for Ukraine as a whole.

First, increasing use of Russian exclusively as «regional» language of «national minority» is absurd: very much the great number, is possible the majority, Russian-speaking inhabitants of Ukraine don’t consider itself neither ethnic Russian, nor ethnic Ukrainians.

Secondly, increasing use of Russian only as regional language of «minority» raises probability of that is called «as parallel sinle anguage» when the persons speaking in an Ukrainian and Russian languages (and, probably, in other languages, for example Romanian or Tatar), make a choice in favor of raised use of the preferable language and only this language. In a combination to a growing tendency among украиноязычных young men not learn Russian it can to lead to dissociation strengthening in Ukraine, like that which we observe between inhabitants of Belgium.
3. Point of view AIU

President Yanukovych should constrain the promise and make Russian the second official state language on a level with the Ukrainian language. Legal and constitutional difficulties of the decision of this question aren’t the inactivity justification. Is better would be, if all Russian-speaking inhabitants have mastered the Ukrainian language, and all Ukrainian-speaking inhabitants have seized Russian.

It would put the end to nationalist sentiments according to which at Russian looked with suspicion, including its undesirable language of «minority» or even «foreign» language. Giving to Russian of the status of the second official language is necessary for the weighed policy conducting to for «the national consent» concerning language according to which inhabitants of all regions of Ukraine sincerely try to seize «other» official language (on what they don’t speak or which, at least, don’t own freely).

Such policy not only would open a way to strengthening of unity of rather bilingual Ukraine, but also would strengthen its role as the bridge between the former Soviet Union and other countries of Europe.
V. Ukraine and the NATO
1. The historical inquiry

Much water has flowed under the bridges since the Ukrainian government has refused membership in the NATO, having made instead a choice in favor of the status of the non-aligned state. Thereby Kiev initiated considerable progress in rapprochement business between the East and the West (which Europe needed most of all from the moment of falling of the Berlin wall) and has given up as a bad job efforts on a strategic environment of Russia. This rapprochement has found the expression in (growing) efforts of France, Germany and Russia on creation of a new safety zone and economic cooperation in Europe (out of the NATO), speedup of rates of investments of the German capital in Russia and appreciable improvement of the Russian-Polish relations.

Meanwhile the NATO, apparently, villages on a bank in Afghanistan as efforts on familiarizing of the Muslim countries with democracy and modern realities under a pistol barrel look to strangeness excessive in view of recent events in Egypt, Tunis and other countries of the Near East and the North Africa. Thus that real democracy is already so close in the North Africa, the USA aren’t absolutely assured any more that they like an observable picture. If new Arabian modes finish refusal of Kemp-Devida and war with terror, the USA can regret about the campaign for democracy, and the NATO can appear in the fatal image compromised and without any plausible reasonable base.

In view of complexities of position of America in the Arabian world and growing threat from China in respect of military domination in East Asia, the NATO, already seeming an anachronism before these events, can quite become very expensive minerals.
2. The forecast

Though the NATO declares respect of the status of the non-aligned state chosen by Ukraine, she constantly very much tries to underline that the door to the introduction into members remains opened. According to the NATO in spite of the fact that «present government» Ukraine «doesn’t aspire now» to the introduction, it hasn’t rendered «any practical influence» on relations of Ukraine from the NATO (then what for, in general, to enter?). Clearly that possibility of a strategic environment of Russia, the unique reason wants to hold the NATO opened, what for Ukraine and why it waits in general is necessary to it, term of stay of Victor Yanukovych in a post yet won’t end.

Meanwhile Ukraine, apparently, agrees to cooperate with the NATO: in November of last year Ukraine participated in NATO operation «Active efforts»; on February, 2nd, 2011 Kiev declared carrying out of some the international military doctrines together with the USA and other countries, including Russia.

Inclusion of Russia is the wise decision. If Ukraine considers that it really should continue to cooperate with the NATO, it should do it so that there was no crack in its relations with Moscow. The shaft Kiev-Moscow is of great importance for strategic and economic stability (including power safety) in Europe, and also for economic well-being of Ukraine and national unity. It is that basis for settlement in Europe after «cold war» which seemed such possible after falling of the Berlin wall, but soon became a victim of the aspiration of Washington doomed to failure to world strategic domination.

Thus, in 2011 it is necessary to expect from the NATO of continuation of attempts to persuade Kiev to enter in members of this organization, thus Kiev, pursuing «multivector» foreign policy, will continue to accompany with affected modesty to these attempts, without accepting any final decisions.

3. Point of view AIU

Yanukovych should put an end to any uncertainty of relations of Kiev from the NATO. He should insist on that the NATO has withdrawn the letter which has been given out at a meeting at the highest levels in Bucharest in 2008 in which Ukraine was offered to take steps for the introduction into members of this organization.

If Ukraine believes that it should continue cooperation with the NATO cancellation of the Bucharest letter, at least, would allow to continue such cooperation, without meaning thereby that Kiev, probably, wishes to reconsider a question on membership anew. For the same reason Kiev should counterbalance any cooperation with the Atlantic union, having put in the statement for reception of the status of the observer in the Organization of the Contract on collective safety (OCCS), having a staff-kartiru in Moscow.

It is necessary for Kiev to occupy very accurate and a firm position in relations with the West of the NATO. Recent events in Europe and the world testify to wisdom of refusal of Ukraine from membership in the Alliance: Ukraine has opened a way to the all-European settlement which is equitable in very considerable degree to its national interests, even in spite of the fact that she should jump aside from a coming nearer wrecked train to which it is represented to the NATO.

As look, the aspiration of America to achieve global strategic domination is lost in the world of a pain and insults; its crash budgetary-tax policy hardly improves matters. Whether the USA (as it should be made) will be dug round or will search for other easy targets for demonstration to the world (and, not in the latest turn,) what they still are power from which it is necessary to be considered? If the second way is chosen, Washington can renew efforts on attraction of Ukraine on the party as a bludgeon to which can beat Russia. It is destiny which Ukraine should avoid for the sake of its blessing. Thereby it also would render very big service to the United States as we extremely need to be disaccustomed to persuasive and destructive experiences concerning foreign events.

It is prepared by the American Institute in Ukraine